Catalog > ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 46 day, 6 hourly, 1.5 degree > Validation report

ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 46 day, 6 hourly, 1.5 degree validation report

This dataset validation report plots a sample of values from the ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 46 day, 6 hourly, 1.5 degree dataset over time and across space, comparing where possible to a previously validated reference dataset. It also reports the quantity of unavailable values and their associated timestamps. These analyses are one layer of a multi-layered dataset validation process we perform at dynamical.org and also provide users a preview of the dataset contents.

Report generation start time: 2026-09-17T16:54:03 UTC

Summary

This dataset has been reviewed and is ready for use.

What looks good

Every initialization from 2026-01-01 through 2026-09-15 is complete for all five variables (heatmap).
Maps align with the reference with no flips, offsets, or scale mismatches, and value histograms overlap the NOAA GEFS analysis for all five variables (spatial_maximum_temperature_2m.png, spatial_precipitation_surface.png, spatial_wind_u_10m.png).
Forecasts track the reference at short leads and diverge with lead time as a forecast should, with the diurnal cycle in phase (temporal_minimum_temperature_2m.png).
Deaccumulated precipitation rates match the reference's magnitude and stay physically plausible at long leads (temporal_precipitation_surface.png); pinned values were also recomputed by hand from the raw archive messages.
Full-period point series show smooth seasonal cycles with no steps or drifts at both points (value_timeseries_maximum_temperature_2m.png).
Lead-zero NaN is confined to the variables that define it that way: precipitation rate and the 6-hour temperature extremes have no lead-zero value; winds are instantaneous and do.
The colder Antarctic winter floor than the reference is inherent to the IFS model: the published daily product from the same source shows the same floor at the same init and lead.

Datasets

Role	Name	ID	Version	URL
Validation	ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 46 day, 6 hourly, 1.5 degree	`ecmwf-ifs-ens-forecast-46-day-6-hourly-1-5-degree`	`v0.1.0`	`s3://dynamical-ecmwf-ifs-ens/ecmwf-ifs-ens-forecast-46-day-6-hourly-1-5-degree/v0.1.0.icechunk`
Reference	NOAA GEFS analysis	`noaa-gefs-analysis`	`0.1.2`	`s3://dynamical-noaa-gefs/noaa-gefs-analysis/v0.1.2.icechunk/`

Run parameters

Parameter	Value
Validation dataset type	forecast
Validation time range	init_time 2026-01-01T00:00 → 2026-09-15T00:00
Reference time range	time 2000-01-01T00:00 → 2026-09-17T12:00
Point 1	lat=40.5000, lon=-100.5000
Point 2	lat=-30.0000, lon=-30.0000
Ensemble member	22
Spatial comparison time	init=2026-09-06T00:00, lead=210h (reference at 2026-09-14T18:00)
Timeseries period	init=2026-05-22T00:00

Availability

The plot below shows the availability of each variable over time — light red marks unavailable data, dark green marks present data.

availability heatmap

Every variable is complete at every scanned position.

Per-variable details

`maximum_temperature_2m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`degree_Celsius`
long_name	Maximum temperature
short_name	tmax
standard_name	air_temperature
step_type	max
comment	Maximum temperature at 2 metres over the previous 6 hours.

Point time series — 2026-01-01T00:00 - 2026-09-15T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	0.5883	18.91	6.599	30.53
P2	17.71	20.79	1.443	25.01

Spatial — init=2026-09-06T00:00, lead=210h (reference at 2026-09-14T18:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-72	7.827	45.75
Reference	-60.5	8.805	47.75

Temporal — init=2026-05-22T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	10.88	26.52	41.25
P1 Reference	10.88	24.3	35.75
P2 Validation	16.5	19.86	22.25
P2 Reference	16	19.35	21.5

Availability — 258 of 258 positions complete; nulls P1 0/4794672, P2 0/4794672

maximum_temperature_2m — full-period value time series

maximum_temperature_2m — spatial comparison

maximum_temperature_2m — time series comparison

maximum_temperature_2m — availability over append dim

`minimum_temperature_2m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`degree_Celsius`
long_name	Minimum temperature
short_name	tmin
standard_name	air_temperature
step_type	min
comment	Minimum temperature at 2 metres over the previous 6 hours.

Point time series — 2026-01-01T00:00 - 2026-09-15T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-3.66	13.84	6.095	25.04
P2	17.18	20.23	1.479	24.43

Spatial — init=2026-09-06T00:00, lead=210h (reference at 2026-09-14T18:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-73	6.086	43.25
Reference	-67	6.752	41.75

Temporal — init=2026-05-22T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	10	21.86	39.25
P1 Reference	9.312	19.56	32.25
P2 Validation	15.69	19.3	22.12
P2 Reference	15.81	18.88	21.12

Availability — 258 of 258 positions complete; nulls P1 0/4794672, P2 0/4794672

minimum_temperature_2m — full-period value time series

minimum_temperature_2m — spatial comparison

minimum_temperature_2m — time series comparison

minimum_temperature_2m — availability over append dim

`precipitation_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`kg m-2 s-1`
long_name	Precipitation rate
short_name	prate
standard_name	precipitation_flux
step_type	avg
comment	Average precipitation rate over the previous 6 hours. Units equivalent to mm/s.

Point time series — 2026-01-01T00:00 - 2026-09-15T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	5.856e-06	2.165e-05	8.433e-05	4.174e-05
P2	3.467e-05	5.251e-05	0.0001462	7.968e-05

Spatial — init=2026-09-06T00:00, lead=210h (reference at 2026-09-14T18:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0	3.043e-05	0.004059
Reference	0	3.054e-05	0.006348

Temporal — init=2026-05-22T00:00

Source	mean	max
P1 Validation	5.538e-05	0.0009499
P1 Reference	2.927e-05	0.0009346
P2 Validation	4.461e-05	0.001045
P2 Reference	3.919e-05	0.001839

Availability — 258 of 258 positions complete; nulls P1 0/4794672, P2 0/4794672

precipitation_surface — full-period value time series

precipitation_surface — spatial comparison

precipitation_surface — time series comparison

precipitation_surface — availability over append dim

`wind_u_10m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m s-1`
long_name	10 metre U wind component
short_name	10u
standard_name	eastward_wind
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2026-01-01T00:00 - 2026-09-15T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-2.001	-0.8038	2.595	1.292
P2	-3.324	0.005234	5.315	2.32

Spatial — init=2026-09-06T00:00, lead=210h (reference at 2026-09-14T18:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-23	0.1363	23.75
Reference	-23.5	0.6479	38.5

Temporal — init=2026-05-22T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	-6.938	-2.266	5.938
P1 Reference	-9.5	-1.372	7.25
P2 Validation	-10.62	3.299	13.62
P2 Reference	-13.88	0.5769	15.38

Availability — 258 of 258 positions complete; nulls P1 0/4820730, P2 0/4820730

wind_u_10m — full-period value time series

wind_u_10m — availability over append dim

`wind_v_10m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m s-1`
long_name	10 metre V wind component
short_name	10v
standard_name	northward_wind
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2026-01-01T00:00 - 2026-09-15T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-1.276	0.5215	3.902	2.104
P2	-2.544	-0.7716	5.631	0.6674

Spatial — init=2026-09-06T00:00, lead=210h (reference at 2026-09-14T18:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-21.5	0.4464	23
Reference	-23.5	0.5464	23.25

Temporal — init=2026-05-22T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	-5.938	1.961	9.75
P1 Reference	-10.25	1.307	8.625
P2 Validation	-11.88	-1.191	9.5
P2 Reference	-15.12	-0.2887	14.5

Availability — 258 of 258 positions complete; nulls P1 0/4820730, P2 0/4820730

wind_v_10m — full-period value time series

wind_v_10m — availability over append dim