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NOAA MRMS CONUS analysis, hourly validation report

This dataset validation report plots a sample of values from the NOAA MRMS CONUS analysis, hourly dataset over time and across space, comparing where possible to a previously validated reference dataset. It also reports the quantity of unavailable values and their associated timestamps. These analyses are one layer of a multi-layered dataset validation process we perform at dynamical.org and also provide users a preview of the dataset contents.

Report generation start time: 2026-07-21T04:19:17 UTC

Summary

This dataset has been reviewed and is ready for use. All 6 variables were checked against the full validation checklist (map geometry, value distributions, comparison to a reference product, full-period value time series, and availability), and every availability gap was verified directly against the upstream NOAA and Iowa State Mesonet archives. MRMS is an operational product whose source system has evolved over the archive's 11+ years: new variables were added over time, and scattered unavailable hours — particularly earlier in the archive — are expected.

What looks good

Maps are correctly oriented and georeferenced across all variables (CONUS landmarks in place, extent matches the declared 20→55°N, -130→-60°E, 0.01° grid).
precipitation_surface agrees well with the GEFS analysis reference: overlapping value distributions and correlated precipitation event timing at both validation points, with MRMS resolving sharper convective peaks than the coarser model reference, as expected.
Dry hours are stored as exactly 0, so selections like values == 0 and values > 0 behave as expected.
Radar and flash-flood-guidance coverage footprints match their product definitions, precipitation-type codes take exactly the documented flag values, and diurnal/seasonal structure is physically plausible at both validation points over the full 11.7-year record.
No quantization banding, no unit-scale mismatches, no sentinel values leaking into the data, and no unexplained drifts or step changes across the full period.

Review notes

Variable additions

precipitation_pass_1_surface, precipitation_pass_2_surface, and flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface begin 2020-10-14T20:00Z, when the MRMS v12 upgrade introduced these products; earlier hours are NaN.
categorical_precipitation_type_surface begins 2016-01-22T20:00Z: the Iowa State Mesonet archive, the only source for this period, does not carry the precipitation-type product before that hour.

Intermittent gaps — each sampled gap was verified absent from the upstream NOAA and Iowa State Mesonet archives; none are backfillable.

precipitation_surface and precipitation_radar_only_surface have very low coverage from November 2014 through February 2015: the gauge-corrected product is absent upstream in this period, and the radar-only files that do exist contain valid data for under 5% of the grid until late February 2015.
categorical_precipitation_type_surface is missing ~2,300 scattered hours from February–May 2016 and ~330 more after mid-2016.
precipitation_pass_1_surface (~116 hours) and precipitation_pass_2_surface (~85 hours) have scattered upstream product outages after their 2020 launch; precipitation_surface retains data at most of those hours via its radar-only fallback.
flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface is missing ~247 hours after its launch, dominated by two upstream outages: 2024-04-16 → 2024-04-22 (~144 hours) and 2024-06-26 → 2024-06-27 (~26 hours).

New data latency

The most recent 1–2 hours of precipitation_pass_1_surface, precipitation_pass_2_surface, and flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface are NaN until their gauge-delayed source files are published (~60–75 minutes after each hour); the hourly update fills them as they arrive.
The most recent hours of precipitation_surface may temporarily hold radar-only data; the hourly update upgrades them to the pass 2 multi-sensor product within ~3 hours.

Spatial coverage

precipitation_radar_only_surface is NaN outside radar coverage (~34% of the grid at any time), and flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface is NaN outside combined radar and flash-flood-guidance coverage (~64%). categorical_precipitation_type_surface marks out-of-coverage cells with its -3 no-coverage flag value rather than NaN. The multi-sensor variables (precipitation_surface, pass 1, pass 2) cover essentially the full grid. See each variable's spatial plot below for its coverage footprint.

Datasets

Role	Name	ID	Version	URL
Validation	NOAA MRMS CONUS analysis, hourly	`noaa-mrms-conus-analysis-hourly`	`v0.3.0`	`s3://us-west-2.opendata.source.coop/dynamical/noaa-mrms-conus-analysis-hourly/v0.3.0.zarr`
Reference	NOAA GEFS analysis	`noaa-gefs-analysis`	`0.1.2`	`s3://dynamical-noaa-gefs/noaa-gefs-analysis/v0.1.2.icechunk/`

Run parameters

Parameter	Value
Validation dataset type	analysis
Validation time range	time 2014-11-01T00:00 → 2026-07-21T04:00
Reference time range	time 2000-01-01T00:00 → 2026-07-21T00:00
Point 1	lat=41.6250, lon=-109.1450
Point 2	lat=29.5850, lon=-90.4850
Spatial comparison time	2026-07-20T19:00 (reference at 2026-07-20T18:00)
Timeseries period	2024-04-30T14:16 - 2024-05-10T14:16
Vertical level	middle level per vertical dim

Availability

The plot below shows the availability of each variable over time — light red marks unavailable data, dark green marks present data.

availability heatmap

Variable	Complete positions	Incomplete %	First incomplete	Last incomplete
`categorical_precipitation_type_surface`	91633/102725	10.80%	2014-11-01T00:00	2024-03-19T18:00
`flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface`	50279/102725	51.05%	2014-11-01T00:00	2026-07-21T04:00
`precipitation_pass_1_surface`	50412/102725	50.93%	2014-11-01T00:00	2026-07-21T04:00
`precipitation_pass_2_surface`	50443/102725	50.90%	2014-11-01T00:00	2026-07-21T04:00
`precipitation_radar_only_surface`	99799/102725	2.85%	2014-11-01T00:00	2025-06-24T05:00
`precipitation_surface`	100015/102725	2.64%	2014-11-01T00:00	2023-11-09T19:00

Unavailable timestamps: unavailable_timestamps.txt

Per-variable details

`categorical_precipitation_type_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`1`
long_name	Precipitation type
short_name	ptype
standard_name	n/a
step_type	instant
flag_values	`-3, 0, 1, 3, 6, 7, 10, 91, 96`
flag_meanings	no_coverage no_precipitation warm_stratiform_rain snow convective_rain rain_mixed_with_hail cold_stratiform_rain tropical_stratiform_rain_mix tropical_convective_rain_mix

Point time series — 2014-11-01T00:00 - 2026-07-21T04:00

Point	min	mean	max
P1	-3	0.03423	10
P2	-3	0.4536	96

Spatial — 2026-07-20T19:00 (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-3	-0.9114	96

Temporal — 2024-04-30T14:16 - 2024-05-10T14:16

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	0	0.004167	1
P2 Validation	0	0.06667	1

Availability — 91633 of 102725 positions complete (incomplete 2014-11-01T00:00 → 2024-03-19T18:00); nulls P1 11092/102725, P2 11092/102725

categorical_precipitation_type_surface — full-period value time series

categorical_precipitation_type_surface — spatial comparison

categorical_precipitation_type_surface — time series comparison

categorical_precipitation_type_surface — availability over append dim

`flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`percent`
long_name	FLASH QPE-to-FFG percentage maximum
short_name	FLASH_QPE_FFGMAX
standard_name	n/a
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2014-11-01T00:00 - 2026-07-21T04:00

Point	min	mean	max
P1	-0	0.02337	35
P2	-0	1.11	1064

Spatial — 2026-07-20T19:00 (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-0	0.5325	170

Temporal — 2024-04-30T14:16 - 2024-05-10T14:16

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	-0	0	-0
P2 Validation	-0	0.125	5

Availability — 50279 of 102725 positions complete (incomplete 2014-11-01T00:00 → 2026-07-21T04:00); nulls P1 52446/102725, P2 52446/102725

flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface — full-period value time series

flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface — spatial comparison

flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface — time series comparison

flash_qpe_ffg_max_surface — availability over append dim

`precipitation_pass_1_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`kg m-2 s-1`
long_name	Precipitation rate
short_name	prate
standard_name	precipitation_flux
step_type	avg

Point time series — 2014-11-01T00:00 - 2026-07-21T04:00

Point	min	mean	max
P1	0	3.013e-06	0.005463
P2	0	4.781e-05	0.01917

Spatial — 2026-07-20T19:00 (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0	3.297e-05	0.01459

Temporal — 2024-04-30T14:16 - 2024-05-10T14:16

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	0	1.158e-05	0.0007782
P2 Validation	0	3.125e-06	0.0002222

Availability — 50412 of 102725 positions complete (incomplete 2014-11-01T00:00 → 2026-07-21T04:00); nulls P1 52313/102725, P2 52313/102725

precipitation_pass_1_surface — full-period value time series

precipitation_pass_1_surface — spatial comparison

precipitation_pass_1_surface — time series comparison

precipitation_pass_1_surface — availability over append dim

`precipitation_pass_2_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`kg m-2 s-1`
long_name	Precipitation rate
short_name	prate
standard_name	precipitation_flux
step_type	avg

Point time series — 2014-11-01T00:00 - 2026-07-21T04:00

Point	min	mean	max
P1	0	1.501e-06	0.002335
P2	0	4.724e-05	0.01917

Spatial — 2026-07-20T19:00 (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0	3.061e-05	0.01385

Temporal — 2024-04-30T14:16 - 2024-05-10T14:16

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	0	7.412e-06	0.0006676
P2 Validation	0	3.016e-06	0.0002785

Availability — 50443 of 102725 positions complete (incomplete 2014-11-01T00:00 → 2026-07-21T04:00); nulls P1 52282/102725, P2 52282/102725

precipitation_pass_2_surface — full-period value time series

precipitation_pass_2_surface — spatial comparison

precipitation_pass_2_surface — time series comparison

precipitation_pass_2_surface — availability over append dim

`precipitation_radar_only_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`kg m-2 s-1`
long_name	Precipitation rate from radar
short_name	rdpr
standard_name	precipitation_flux
step_type	avg

Point time series — 2014-11-01T00:00 - 2026-07-21T04:00

Point	min	mean	max
P1	0	2.705e-06	0.005554
P2	0	5.46e-05	0.02441

Spatial — 2026-07-20T19:00 (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0	2.487e-05	0.01495

Temporal — 2024-04-30T14:16 - 2024-05-10T14:16

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	0	0	0
P2 Validation	0	5.795e-06	0.0008621

Availability — 99799 of 102725 positions complete (incomplete 2014-11-01T00:00 → 2025-06-24T05:00); nulls P1 2918/102725, P2 2745/102725

precipitation_radar_only_surface — full-period value time series

precipitation_radar_only_surface — spatial comparison

precipitation_radar_only_surface — time series comparison

precipitation_radar_only_surface — availability over append dim

`precipitation_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`kg m-2 s-1`
long_name	Precipitation rate
short_name	prate
standard_name	precipitation_flux
step_type	avg

Point time series — 2014-11-01T00:00 - 2026-07-21T04:00

Point	min	mean	max
P1	0	3.252e-06	0.005005
P2	0	5.412e-05	0.02441

Spatial — 2026-07-20T19:00 (reference at 2026-07-20T18:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0	3.061e-05	0.01385
Reference	0	3.14e-05	0.003326

Temporal — 2024-04-30T14:16 - 2024-05-10T14:16

Source	mean	max
P1 Validation	7.412e-06	0.0006676
P1 Reference	1.352e-05	0.0005493
P2 Validation	3.016e-06	0.0002785
P2 Reference	9.134e-06	0.0004539

Availability — 100015 of 102725 positions complete (incomplete 2014-11-01T00:00 → 2023-11-09T19:00); nulls P1 2702/102725, P2 2529/102725

precipitation_surface — full-period value time series

precipitation_surface — spatial comparison

precipitation_surface — time series comparison

precipitation_surface — availability over append dim