Catalog > ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 15 day, 0.25 degree > Validation report

ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 15 day, 0.25 degree validation report

This dataset validation report plots a sample of values from the ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 15 day, 0.25 degree dataset over time and across space, comparing where possible to a previously validated reference dataset. It also reports the quantity of unavailable values and their associated timestamps. These analyses are one layer of a multi-layered dataset validation process we perform at dynamical.org and also provide users a preview of the dataset contents.

Report generation start time: 2026-08-19T14:16:15 UTC

Summary

This dataset has been reviewed and is ready for use.

What looks good

Values match the original source data, including the precipitation and radiation rates this archive derives from the running totals ECMWF publishes.
Coordinates and map geometry are correct on every field — no flipped, shifted or misaligned grids.
Forecasts track an independent reference dataset (NOAA GEFS analysis) at short lead times and diverge at longer ones, as expected as forecast skill is lost.
Variables are physically consistent with one another — 925 hPa warmer than 850 hPa, dew point below air temperature, 100 metre winds stronger than 10 metre winds, gusts above sustained winds.
No quantization banding, placeholder values or unexplained flat stretches, and no ensemble member behaves differently from the others.

Review notes

Variable coverage

Three variables begin later than the rest of the archive, because ECMWF added them to its open data feed on those dates. Earlier initializations hold no data (NaN) for them.
- From initialization 2024-11-13T00:00 — categorical_precipitation_type_surface and wind_gust_10m.
- From initialization 2025-11-21T00:00 — total_cloud_cover_atmosphere.

Known bad values

Precipitation rate and the two downward radiation fluxes are NaN at isolated points where the source's running total decreases between forecast steps. A running total cannot physically decrease, so a decrease small enough to be rounding noise in the source is clamped to a rate of zero, while a rate more negative than −0.25 mm/hour for precipitation, or −50 W m⁻² for the radiation fluxes, is written as NaN instead of a negative value.

Datasets

Role	Name	ID	Version	URL
Validation	ECMWF IFS ENS forecast, 15 day, 0.25 degree	`ecmwf-ifs-ens-forecast-15-day-0-25-degree`	`v0.1.0`	`s3://us-west-2.opendata.source.coop/dynamical/ecmwf-ifs-ens-forecast-15-day-0-25-degree/v0.1.0.zarr`
Reference	NOAA GEFS analysis	`noaa-gefs-analysis`	`0.1.2`	`s3://dynamical-noaa-gefs/noaa-gefs-analysis/v0.1.2.icechunk/`

Run parameters

Parameter	Value
Validation dataset type	forecast
Validation time range	init_time 2024-04-01T00:00 → 2026-08-19T00:00
Reference time range	time 2000-01-01T00:00 → 2026-08-19T06:00
Point 1	lat=45.0000, lon=10.0000
Point 2	lat=-20.0000, lon=-10.0000
Ensemble member	29
Spatial comparison time	init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)
Timeseries period	init=2025-11-02T00:00

Availability

The plot below shows the availability of each variable over time — light red marks unavailable data, dark green marks present data.

availability heatmap

Variable	Complete positions	Incomplete %	First incomplete	Last incomplete
`categorical_precipitation_type_surface`	645/871	25.95%	2024-04-01T00:00	2024-11-12T00:00
`precipitation_surface`	870/871	0.11%	2026-07-12T00:00	2026-07-12T00:00
`total_cloud_cover_atmosphere`	272/871	68.77%	2024-04-01T00:00	2025-11-20T00:00
`wind_gust_10m`	645/871	25.95%	2024-04-01T00:00	2024-11-12T00:00

Unavailable timestamps: unavailable_timestamps.txt

Per-variable details

`categorical_precipitation_type_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`1`
long_name	Precipitation type
short_name	ptype
standard_name	n/a
step_type	instant
flag_values	`0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 255`
flag_meanings	no_precipitation rain thunderstorm freezing_rain mixed_ice snow wet_snow mixture_of_rain_and_snow ice_pellets graupel hail drizzle freezing_drizzle hail_less_than_5mm hail_greater_than_or_equal_to_5mm missing
comment	0=No precipitation; 1=Rain; 2=Thunderstorm; 3=Freezing rain; 4=Mixed/ice; 5=Snow; 6=Wet snow; 7=Mixture of rain and snow; 8=Ice pellets; 9=Graupel; 10=Hail; 11=Drizzle; 12=Freezing drizzle; 13=Hail (less than 5 mm); 14=Hail (greater than or equal to 5 mm); 15-191=Reserved; 192-254=Reserved for local use; 255=Missing

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	0.01938	0.397	0.7114	1.913
P2	0.2055	0.4995	0.4911	0.7248

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0	1.668	12

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	0	0.4118	1
P2 Validation	0	0.4235	1

Availability — 645 of 871 positions complete (incomplete 2024-04-01T00:00 → 2024-11-12T00:00); nulls P1 979710/3775785, P2 979710/3775785

categorical_precipitation_type_surface — full-period value time series

categorical_precipitation_type_surface — spatial comparison

categorical_precipitation_type_surface — time series comparison

categorical_precipitation_type_surface — availability over append dim

`dew_point_temperature_2m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`degree_Celsius`
long_name	2 metre dewpoint temperature
short_name	2d
standard_name	dew_point_temperature
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-3.482	10.56	2.944	20.6
P2	13.88	17.06	1.203	20.44

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-73.5	3.833	30.12

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	3.438	7.484	14.81
P2 Validation	12.88	15.52	18.62

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

dew_point_temperature_2m — full-period value time series

dew_point_temperature_2m — spatial comparison

dew_point_temperature_2m — time series comparison

dew_point_temperature_2m — availability over append dim

`downward_long_wave_radiation_flux_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`W m-2`
long_name	Surface downward long-wave radiation flux
short_name	sdlwrf
standard_name	surface_downwelling_longwave_flux_in_air
step_type	avg
comment	Average flux since the previous forecast step.

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	252.8	337.7	26.82	404.6
P2	351.3	374	14.91	395.6

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	54.5	318.5	476
Reference	57.25	313.3	480

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	266	305.5	370
P1 Reference	260	299.7	372
P2 Validation	332	377	408
P2 Reference	328	361.5	400

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3731364, P2 0/3731364

downward_long_wave_radiation_flux_surface — full-period value time series

downward_long_wave_radiation_flux_surface — spatial comparison

downward_long_wave_radiation_flux_surface — time series comparison

downward_long_wave_radiation_flux_surface — availability over append dim

`downward_short_wave_radiation_flux_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`W m-2`
long_name	Surface downward short-wave radiation flux
short_name	sdswrf
standard_name	surface_downwelling_shortwave_flux_in_air
step_type	avg
comment	Average flux since the previous forecast step.

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	32.3	178.6	203.1	322
P2	137.3	227.6	265.2	324.3

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0	158.3	988
Reference	0	168.1	952

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	mean	max
P1 Validation	85.21	450
P1 Reference	88.71	310
P2 Validation	248.6	936
P2 Reference	273.3	1032

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3731364, P2 0/3731364

downward_short_wave_radiation_flux_surface — full-period value time series

downward_short_wave_radiation_flux_surface — spatial comparison

downward_short_wave_radiation_flux_surface — time series comparison

downward_short_wave_radiation_flux_surface — availability over append dim

`geopotential_height_500hpa`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m`
long_name	Geopotential height
short_name	gh
standard_name	geopotential_height
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	579.1	5669	72.56	5897
P2	600.7	5855	20.49	5924

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	4576	5562	5998
Reference	4586	5557	5994

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	5390	5658	5794
P1 Reference	5554	5685	5810
P2 Validation	5868	5892	5918
P2 Reference	5838	5880	5920

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

geopotential_height_500hpa — full-period value time series

geopotential_height_500hpa — spatial comparison

geopotential_height_500hpa — time series comparison

geopotential_height_500hpa — availability over append dim

`geopotential_height_850hpa`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m`
long_name	Geopotential height
short_name	gh
standard_name	geopotential_height
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	152.8	1493	46.6	1579
P2	155.8	1536	13.31	1572

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	752.5	1399	1680

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	1284	1483	1572
P2 Validation	1506	1532	1558

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

geopotential_height_850hpa — full-period value time series

geopotential_height_850hpa — spatial comparison

geopotential_height_850hpa — time series comparison

geopotential_height_850hpa — availability over append dim

`geopotential_height_925hpa`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m`
long_name	Geopotential height
short_name	gh
standard_name	geopotential_height
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	81.18	790	45.24	875.6
P2	82.6	827.7	13.31	866.4

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	115.5	704.1	958.8

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	591	786.6	875.8
P2 Validation	796.2	824.2	850.8

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

geopotential_height_925hpa — full-period value time series

geopotential_height_925hpa — spatial comparison

geopotential_height_925hpa — time series comparison

geopotential_height_925hpa — availability over append dim

`precipitation_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`kg m-2 s-1`
long_name	Precipitation rate
short_name	prate
standard_name	precipitation_flux
step_type	avg
comment	Average precipitation rate since the previous forecast step. Units equivalent to mm/s.

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	1.836e-06	2.986e-05	0.0001	0.0001229
P2	1.137e-06	7.573e-06	1.624e-05	3.366e-05

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0	3.314e-05	0.01624
Reference	0	3.005e-05	0.006287

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	mean	max
P1 Validation	2.828e-05	0.0005379
P1 Reference	2.202e-05	0.0007629
P2 Validation	6.262e-06	5.221e-05
P2 Reference	3.832e-06	3.529e-05

Availability — 870 of 871 positions complete (incomplete 2026-07-12T00:00 → 2026-07-12T00:00); nulls P1 1/3731364, P2 0/3731364

precipitation_surface — full-period value time series

precipitation_surface — spatial comparison

precipitation_surface — time series comparison

precipitation_surface — availability over append dim

`pressure_reduced_to_mean_sea_level`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`Pa`
long_name	Pressure reduced to MSL
short_name	prmsl
standard_name	air_pressure_at_mean_sea_level
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	1.001e+05	1.016e+05	541.2	1.028e+05
P2	1.014e+05	1.019e+05	162.9	1.024e+05

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	9.392e+04	1.007e+05	1.039e+05
Reference	9.408e+04	1.008e+05	1.054e+05

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	9.936e+04	1.017e+05	1.028e+05
P1 Reference	1.007e+05	1.018e+05	1.027e+05
P2 Validation	1.015e+05	1.019e+05	1.022e+05
P2 Reference	1.016e+05	1.019e+05	1.022e+05

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

pressure_reduced_to_mean_sea_level — full-period value time series

pressure_reduced_to_mean_sea_level — spatial comparison

pressure_reduced_to_mean_sea_level — time series comparison

pressure_reduced_to_mean_sea_level — availability over append dim

`pressure_surface`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`Pa`
long_name	Surface pressure
short_name	sp
standard_name	surface_air_pressure
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	9.957e+04	1.011e+05	538.5	1.022e+05
P2	1.014e+05	1.019e+05	163	1.024e+05

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	4.917e+04	9.645e+04	1.051e+05
Reference	5.062e+04	9.642e+04	1.037e+05

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	9.885e+04	1.011e+05	1.022e+05
P1 Reference	9.939e+04	1.006e+05	1.014e+05
P2 Validation	1.015e+05	1.019e+05	1.022e+05
P2 Reference	1.016e+05	1.019e+05	1.022e+05

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

pressure_surface — full-period value time series

pressure_surface — time series comparison

pressure_surface — availability over append dim

`temperature_2m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`degree_Celsius`
long_name	2 metre temperature
short_name	2t
standard_name	air_temperature
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-0.3161	15.55	3.852	30.12
P2	19.79	21.94	0.5876	24.59

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-73.5	8.105	40
Reference	-70	8.502	39.25

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	3.828	9.619	17.62
P1 Reference	6.094	11.32	16.88
P2 Validation	19.12	20.36	22.38
P2 Reference	19.25	20.34	21.25

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

temperature_2m — full-period value time series

temperature_2m — availability over append dim

`temperature_850hpa`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`degree_Celsius`
long_name	Temperature
short_name	t
standard_name	air_temperature
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-2.911	8.896	2.561	20.16
P2	7.446	12.08	2.262	19.93

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-47.75	4.35	35

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	0.1963	5.997	9.812
P2 Validation	7.469	11.2	18.75

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

temperature_850hpa — full-period value time series

temperature_850hpa — time series comparison

temperature_850hpa — availability over append dim

`temperature_925hpa`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`degree_Celsius`
long_name	Temperature
short_name	t
standard_name	air_temperature
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	0.4018	13.07	2.583	26.05
P2	11.94	14.63	0.7321	17.78

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-44	7.107	40

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	3.453	9.057	13.5
P2 Validation	11.62	13.19	15.5

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

temperature_925hpa — full-period value time series

temperature_925hpa — time series comparison

temperature_925hpa — availability over append dim

`total_cloud_cover_atmosphere`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`percent`
long_name	Total cloud cover
short_name	tcc
standard_name	cloud_area_fraction
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	12.34	51.73	35.53	91.7
P2	28.75	46.34	30.99	72.04

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0	67.47	100
Reference	0	62.54	100

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	n/a	n/a	n/a
P1 Reference	0	39.05	100
P2 Validation	n/a	n/a	n/a
P2 Reference	0	61.19	100

Availability — 272 of 871 positions complete (incomplete 2024-04-01T00:00 → 2025-11-20T00:00); nulls P1 2596665/3775785, P2 2596665/3775785

total_cloud_cover_atmosphere — full-period value time series

total_cloud_cover_atmosphere — spatial comparison

total_cloud_cover_atmosphere — time series comparison

total_cloud_cover_atmosphere — availability over append dim

`wind_gust_10m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m s-1`
long_name	Maximum 10 metre wind gust since previous post-processing
short_name	10fg
standard_name	wind_speed_of_gust
step_type	max

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	2.969	4.485	2.34	6.32
P2	6.143	9.162	2.483	12.81

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference not available)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	0.1875	9.643	41.5

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	0.5078	3.612	9.125
P2 Validation	1.797	7.527	12.38

Availability — 645 of 871 positions complete (incomplete 2024-04-01T00:00 → 2024-11-12T00:00); nulls P1 968184/3731364, P2 968184/3731364

wind_gust_10m — full-period value time series

wind_gust_10m — availability over append dim

`wind_u_100m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m s-1`
long_name	100 metre U wind component
short_name	100u
standard_name	eastward_wind
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-3.239	-0.4653	3.059	3.359
P2	-9.654	-6.36	2.711	-1.327

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-38.5	0.6143	37
Reference	-31.75	0.7681	28.75

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	-7.875	-0.2158	8.25
P1 Reference	-4.188	0.3408	6.562
P2 Validation	-10.25	-4.711	3.781
P2 Reference	-9.625	-4.832	-0.2148

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

wind_u_100m — full-period value time series

wind_u_100m — availability over append dim

`wind_u_10m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m s-1`
long_name	10 metre U wind component
short_name	10u
standard_name	eastward_wind
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-1.854	-0.2502	1.766	1.72
P2	-8.647	-5.813	2.432	-1.308

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-31.5	0.4363	28
Reference	-25.25	0.5093	23

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	-5.375	0.06853	4.562
P1 Reference	-2.938	0.2966	4.125
P2 Validation	-9.125	-4.372	3.625
P2 Reference	-8.5	-4.357	-0.2402

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

wind_u_10m — full-period value time series

wind_u_10m — availability over append dim

`wind_v_100m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m s-1`
long_name	100 metre V wind component
short_name	100v
standard_name	northward_wind
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-1.152	-0.08294	1.616	0.8725
P2	-1.92	1.935	2.174	3.991

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-27.75	0.7538	33.5
Reference	-26.25	0.7232	29

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	-2.625	-0.09703	3.219
P1 Reference	-2.812	-0.1062	3
P2 Validation	-4.438	1.573	8.25
P2 Reference	-3	1.087	5.688

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

wind_v_100m — full-period value time series

wind_v_100m — availability over append dim

`wind_v_10m`

Metadata

Field	Value
units	`m s-1`
long_name	10 metre V wind component
short_name	10v
standard_name	northward_wind
step_type	instant

Point time series — 2024-04-01T00:00 - 2026-08-19T00:00

Point	min	mean	std	max
P1	-0.5884	-0.08062	0.9308	0.483
P2	-1.734	1.774	1.997	3.583

Spatial — init=2026-07-01T00:00, lead=24h (reference at 2026-07-02T00:00)

Source	min	mean	max
Validation	-21.5	0.6981	24.75
Reference	-21	0.6498	23.5

Temporal — init=2025-11-02T00:00

Source	min	mean	max
P1 Validation	-1.859	-0.1237	1.391
P1 Reference	-1.875	-0.08868	1.734
P2 Validation	-4.188	1.478	7.5
P2 Reference	-2.781	0.9888	5.125

Availability — 871 of 871 positions complete; nulls P1 0/3775785, P2 0/3775785

wind_v_10m — full-period value time series

wind_v_10m — availability over append dim